WE had a good cooment from Jason and it raises the important question of timesframes, Thus I wanted to share my response with a wider audience. I have also added some additional charts to relay my argument.....
Have been an ardent follower for over 2+
years now. However this is the very first time we have a contradiction. :-) I
see a massive crash coming to the tune of nearly 150-200 points on the S&P.
Upside, may be a few points, but downside risk is way too high right now.
Any ideas on that side of the trade?
Also, i noticed you have stopped covering Bradley dates/waves. That too is indicative of a downtick and then massive rally.
Thots?
Jason_70
ReplyDelete
Any ideas on that side of the trade?
Also, i noticed you have stopped covering Bradley dates/waves. That too is indicative of a downtick and then massive rally.
Thots?
Jason_70
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I share your view, but the facts are not there yet. My objective is to assess Mr. Market without a bias and at this stage I see the cyclical bull in the longer term Bear is mature and once it has peaked we will see some more dramatic downside. This leaves us with the question whether X-Mas is the time for the peak or the time for another try before the good will end. At this stage I believe that we are not there yet, we are very close, but have to be patient.
Bradley has shown some amamzing correlations to the market action, but at some point in time it has just stopped. I find it hard to use a tool that has lost its touch.
This is exactly why I love my VixOsc and TREND indicator so much because they are exclusively based on peoples real trading positions - no bias! Do I struggle to make sense of some the finding in a fundamental kind of way? All the time! I have accepted that the ALGOS and the Centralbanks control/rig the game.
Give Santa the benefit of the doubt for another week or weeks, let him enjoy the coming fiscal cliff rally and look out for what happens next.
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The following Charts show that the market is not cheap anymore and probably looks for a final run up before the fall.
ISE/CBOE:
RISK TRADE:
Wow. thank you sir for actually considering my comment to be this valuable to have started a thread on it.
ReplyDeleteYes, i stopped looking @ market in linear fashion nor do i look @ fundamentals. In most cases when i invest i only know the ticker symbol, i dont even know what sector it is in or if it is an ETF. Just look @ charts with many other broad factors.
I spent the last two days trying to asses host of other stuff and i did an exercise to simply gather all the bullish/bearish arguments. Bearish arguments beat bullish by 4-1.
I wont go into posting all of them and neither is my intention to contradict your own tools. I simply wanted to have a healthy discussion and learn from you as you obviously have been there more longer than i have been (13 yrs :-) )
I will just post 6 of my fav breadth/overall market indicators. Please analyze in totality and let me know how on earth can we enter into a bull market with such a situation. Going back 20 years, i have NEVER seen even a SINGLE instance where without at least 3-4 of the ones below participating we had a BULL run. Hence, the chances of crash are much higher now than ever before.
Thots?
Thanks again for taking time to respond. You are simply outstanding. :-)
Jason_70
1) VIX @ lows
2) CPCE @ lows
3) TRIN @ lows
4) The net shorteuroposition is the smallest in 14 months.
5) The net shortyenposition is the largest in five years
6) The net long speculativeAustralian dollarposition stands at a new record high
We agree on the medium term assessment, but Tops need to evolve beyond the imagination of the participants. I watch the same warning signs, but there can always be another move up to develop another negative divergence...... thus I believe it has become impossible to time tops. Mr. Market will tell us when....
DeleteOn the other side, if we don't see AAPL moving up soon then we know we live on borrowed time.
Thank you sir. As always, your work is beyond words. :-)
DeleteThe only problem i have with the current move up is that it is missing another leg down. But this move was so strong after yet another strong move down, that the weekly's look ugly now. Earlier i was only looking for a minor leg down to create divergence. But now, we will have a major leg down to clear out the weekly indicators.
Its surprising that Nasdaq is holding up so nicely even after appl plunge. It looks at least 100 points richer right now already. Aapl is forming a symetrical triangle and that means it will go down further. Let's see if others join the party or they will continue in their own world as they have done the last 1 month.
Thanks again
Jason